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S-shaped propagation curve. As the bitcoin spreads among different groups of followers, its market share grows. The critical point (green circle) corresponds to the change of the curve direction: exponential growth starts immediately after it. On the lower scale: innovators, early proponents, early majority, later majority, backward.


The first part of the curve is relatively straight and characterizes the slowest rate of spread. At this stage, the product tries to gain popularity and is only known to innovators and early followers. The rapid rise starts at a "critical point" when market awareness moves to a much wider mass.




Distribution of technology to households in the U.S. The top shows inventions over the past 120 years. Only the more advanced technologies are shown below.


In reality, diffusion does not always go as shown in the graph.

Several S curves show stops/stops. Others show smooth transitions. As can be seen in the figures, modern technologies experience much sharper rises than time distant samples. Tablets, smartphones and social networks were introduced around 2005 and showed almost vertical growth. Although there is an emphasis on linear short-term graphics, one thing is important: as soon as the technology receives an impulse, its proliferation becomes almost unstoppable. What is going on?


We have entered a new era where cutting-edge ideas, technologies and information are being disseminated and supported by the public. Our interactions are increasingly a reflection of the network effect, leading to a key change in the diffusion of innovation - growth itself is increasing, making diffusion curves steeper and shorter.


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Indeed, this phenomenon can also be seen in the case of bitcoin. As recently as the end of 2017, the bitcoin rate increased 3.6 times in 35 days between November 12 and September 17. Public excitement and fear of losing the right moment at this time reached manic levels. Bitcoin has been mentioned time and again in popular financial media and social networks. Bitcoin queries on Google have reached their peak. The course came close to the level of $ 20,000.


 

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