Crypto bit Blog

The price of Bitcoin will not be able to grow forever, because at a certain stage of the crypt currency will absorb all economic value in the world. Let's first consider the scenario where the price of bitcoin reaches $100,000,000 per coin. I use the "bubble top" and non-linear regression line model to represent the channel. The orange line corresponds to a non-linear regression curve. The green line is drawn at the tops of early Bitcoin bubbles. The last price jump of the Bitcoin was a microbubble and did not reach this line. The channel is narrowing as the price approaches $100,000,000 in 2030. I assume that the price of a bitcoin will fluctuate within these limits, tilting less and less as it moves towards a state of hyperbitcoinization. We can see on the chart that, theoretically, the price of a bitcoin can rise above $500,000,000 where two lines meet. However, as mentioned above, innovative technologies are reaching the saturation stage and we should assume that bitc

 Bitcoin capitalization reached a historic high of $326 billion on December 17, 2017. Although this is a phenomenal achievement for such a new technology, Bitcoin has a long way to go if we expect it to replace the phyt. What should Bitcoin do? What value is it capable of absorbing? If bitcoin becomes the world's only unit of calculation, a means of exchange and a means of accumulation, it must absorb the entire value of the global market. This is what we have today: $7.7 trillion in gold. $73 trillion in global stock market $127 trillion in money (coins, banknotes, checks) $215 trillion in debt obligations, which, by the way, does not stop growing $217 trillion in real estate $1.2+ quadrillion (quadrillion = 1 000 000 000 000 000) in derivative instruments Although this is not an exhaustive list, it allows us to get an idea of the market scale. This will include derivatives and similar tools, although they can be significantly modified, scaled down or even completely eliminated in

 Hyperbitcoinization graph in the context of changes in the value of the cryptographic currency. Although the different stages are depicted as just touching each other, in reality they do intersect. For example, a medium of exchange can be a bitcoin to a critical point. The path of hyperbitcoinization is described in the red S curve, which also represents the chart of the bitcoin price. Bitcoin begins to pass through a series of microbubbles at the nucleation stage. Each of them reflects a fundamental shift caused by the events that cause it. Experienced retail investors are joined by early risk lovers from the general public. Around the basic concepts of Bitcoin, venture capital funded companies are created. Wall Street firms develop tools to monetize bitcoin. Public corporations adapt it to make payments. And so on. Bigger price bubbles and endless volatility accompany these phases of early discovery. At this time, bitcoin use scenarios, complemented by improved instruments for its e

 The graph shows the scheme of crystallization of minerals, which, in my opinion, is applicable to the growth of bitcoin and allows us to understand how we can achieve hyperbitcoinization in a relatively short period of time. The blue curve corresponds to the nucleation rate, which describes the formation of free elements; they are eventually added to a crystal lattice. The red line corresponds to the growth rate of crystals, where saturation/crystallization is achieved in the upper right part of the S curve. As you can see in the figure, active crystallization begins only after the phases of equilibrium and nucleation. The intersection of the two lines, which we call the "critical point", is a narrow zone beyond which exponential growth begins and the energy state of the system favors the formation of crystals instead of free elements. We adapt our model to bitcoin. The crystallization process started at the moment when the Bitcoin ecosystem appeared. Growth becomes exponent

 Bitcoin proved to be a socially connected form of money for a socially connected society. No organized group promotes its benefits and has no control over it. It is owned by users and they promote it. This allows Bitcoin to spread at an unprecedented rate. Bitcoin is an innovation with few barriers to large-scale diffusion. Because there is no central authority that can underestimate its value, the value is determined by the people themselves. No border can prevent its spread because it is decentralized. Bitcoin becomes safer as more people begin to use it. Because bitcoin combines currency with reliable monetary qualities and innovative technology, it is able to become the dominant form of money, several orders of magnitude superior to its competitors. When viewed in the appropriate context, you can see that the path of hyperbitcoinization will consist of almost vertical price hikes, which will sometimes be replaced by short corrections, as shown in some examples above. During these

S-shaped propagation curve. As the bitcoin spreads among different groups of followers, its market share grows. The critical point (green circle) corresponds to the change of the curve direction: exponential growth starts immediately after it. On the lower scale: innovators, early proponents, early majority, later majority, backward. The first part of the curve is relatively straight and characterizes the slowest rate of spread. At this stage, the product tries to gain popularity and is only known to innovators and early followers. The rapid rise starts at a "critical point" when market awareness moves to a much wider mass. Distribution of technology to households in the U.S. The top shows inventions over the past 120 years. Only the more advanced technologies are shown below. In reality, diffusion does not always go as shown in the graph. Several S curves show stops/stops. Others show smooth transitions. As can be seen in the figures, modern technologies experience much shar